D&D Combat Balancer

A Monte‑Carlo–driven combat analysis tool for Dungeon Masters who want accurate, data‑backed encounter balancing. This simulator runs 150,000 batched combat tests to determine whether a party survives a given encounter, achieving roughly 99.5% accuracy in predicting lethality.

What Is This?

This tool is a combat probability simulator for tabletop RPGs (like D&D‑style systems). Instead of guessing encounter difficulty or relying on vague CR guidelines, the simulator:

• Models your party and enemies
• Runs thousands of automated combat rounds
• Tracks whether any party member dies
• Produces statistical results you can trust

It’s built for DMs who want real math, not gut feelings.

Why Does It Exist?

Traditional encounter‑building rules are notoriously unreliable. CR ratings don’t scale well, party composition varies wildly, and even “balanced” fights can swing out of control.

This simulator solves that by:

• Using Monte Carlo simulation, the same technique used in finance, physics, and AI
• Running 150k+ combat iterations to smooth out randomness
• Giving you a clear probability of party death
• Helping you tune encounters before they ever hit the table

If you’ve ever wondered:

• “Is this boss too strong?”
• “Will the wizard get one‑shot?”
• “Is this encounter deadly or just spicy?”

…this tool answers those questions with data, not guesswork.

How It Works

1. You define the combatants

The simulator takes in:

• Party stats
• Enemy stats

More to come!

2. It runs 150,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Each simulation:

• Rolls initiative
• Alternates turns
• Applies damage
• Tracks deaths
• Ends when one side wins

This is repeated 150,000 times to generate a statistically meaningful result.

3. It analyzes the outcomes

After all simulations complete, the tool reports:

• How many runs resulted in a party death
• The overall encounter winnability

Data you can compare across encounters

Accuracy

The simulator’s 150k‑run Monte Carlo approach yields roughly 99.5% accuracy in predicting whether a party member will die during the encounter.

This makes it far more reliable than CR charts or rule‑of‑thumb balancing.

UI, SFX, and VFX Layer

The simulator includes a full wxWidgets‑based graphical interface. To enhance clarity and immersion during simulations, the tool now features:

• Sound effects for interactions and key events
• Pixel‑art visual effects that animate actions and outcomes
• Background music to create a cohesive testing atmosphere

These additions do not alter the underlying math or simulation logic—they simply make the experience more intuitive and engaging while preserving analytical accuracy.

Planned Updates

• More in depth combat capability
  • 2D Block Combat Render for spacial rules such as Attack Of Opportunity
  • Special Effects & Immunities
  • Actual Attack Capabilities
    • Multiple Targets
    • Special Effects
    • Spell Slots
    • Focus
    • DOT
    • Area Of Effect
• Better Stat Generation
  • Class Modifiers for 27 Point Spend instead of randomized 4D6 Rules
    • Also adds Class Specific things like Rage Capabilities, Spell Slots, Stealth Capabilities and more.
  • Combat Behavior
    • Class Based Mode
    • User Set Mode
  • Pre-built Monster Stat Builds
  • Gear Mods
    • Custom
    • Pre-built library
  • Feats

Summary

The TTRPG Combat Balance Simulator is a powerful, math‑driven tool for DMs who want to build encounters with confidence. By running massive batches of Monte Carlo simulations, it provides accurate predictions of party survival and helps you tune difficulty before your players ever roll initiative.

Asset Sources

GameDevMarket

• Super Pixel Fantasy FX Pack 2 (Pixel Art Effect Animations) -- untiedgames = Pro License
• Super Pixel Explosion FX Pack 1 (Pixel Art Effect Animations) -- untiedgames = Pro License
• Wild Music Pack -- TomFeldmann == Pro License
• Medieval Fantasy SFX Pack -- EvilMind == Pro License